Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
